Major stock events in the United States will focus on the start of the week, as Thanksgiving Thursday will significantly reduce activity from Wednesday evening. The field is still occupied by artificial intelligence, on Tuesday the results of Nvidia and the tragicomedy led by OpenAI. Meanwhile, Elon Musk is upset, Argentina has elected its new president, and OPEC is working to stem the decline in oil prices.
A great week for stocks with gains of between 2 and 3% across many indices, including the Stoxx Europe 600 and S&P500. Not much to add. Investors use proven mechanisms: buying stocks in the period between the peak and the first rate cut by the US central bank. In doing so, they are more or less knowingly taking on two risks: on the one hand, they are wrong about the date of the peak of rates, and on the other hand, they are wrong about the first rate cut coming up. On the first point, most doubts have been dispelled by the latest inflation data and comments from central bankers. The second point is more contentious, because on the one hand the central bank is constantly warning that rates will remain high for a long time, and on the other hand, investors are almost certain that this is an intellectual fraud and that the first easing will happen. in spring.
The bull camp has clearly crushed the skeptics camp, and November is well on its way to ending three consecutive months of declines in stock indexes. Of particular note are the US Nasdaq 100, which is up 9.9% since the start of the month, and Japan’s Nikkei 225, which is gaining almost 9% and broke the 33-year high reached last June in this morning’s session.
Information you must not miss:
- Things are heating up in OpenAI. The artificial intelligence specialist’s CEO and co-founder, Sam Altman, was fired by its board on Friday night. Since then, rumors have been running wild about this mini earthquake in Silicon Valley. OpenAI would try to put him back in the saddle, then no. Then yes. Then the board would break. Then no, then yes. If you like drama, this will probably be interesting. Otherwise, you were right to wander around or go mushroom hunting on the weekend.
- Thursday is Thanksgiving Day in the United States. Turkey and society. It may be a detail to you, but it means a lot to Americans. This day of family feasting precedes Black Friday, which has traditionally marked the beginning of Christmas sales in the United States. Thanksgiving is always on the 4thE Thursday in November, but Black Friday has gone far beyond its original scope, as we’ve seen a boom in “Black Friday”-stamped promotions since the beginning of November. On Wall Street, that means a holiday Thursday and a generally slow Friday.
- Argentina elected a new president: Javier Milei won the second round against Economy Minister Sergio Massa. Milei is called a libertarian by polite people, far-right by leftists, right-wing by right-wingers, and himself an anarcho-capitalist.
- Elon Musk is also a libertarian because he says everyone can say whatever they want (except against him). He promised pro-Nazi content. Several brands such as IBM, Apple and Walt Disney have suspended their ads on the network as a result of the scandal and Musk’s recent positions.
- Oil fell sharply on Thursday on fears of an oversupply as the global economy slows. There was a rebound on Friday after some carefully orchestrated leaks suggested OPEC might step up production cuts. The cartel will meet on November 26 in Vienna, at the headquarters of the organization. Brent crude returned above $81 a barrel after hitting its lowest since July around $77.50 on Friday.
- Several media outlets have reported that Israel, the United States and Hamas have reached a tentative agreement to release dozens of hostages in Gaza in exchange for a five-day pause in fighting, but no confirmation has been made at this time.
On the agenda for the week, the Fed will release minutes from its latest meeting on Tuesday. The market will also be interested in durable goods orders for October on Wednesday and advance PMI indicators for major economies on Thursday, except for the United States, which will be released on Friday, thanks to Thanksgiving Day. ECB chief Christine Lagarde is scheduled to speak in Europe on Tuesday and then on Friday. On the corporate side, it’s Nvidia’s results on Tuesday night that are generating the most anticipation. The American group truly embodies the rise of artificial intelligence with very high market expectations.
In Asia-Pacific, the Nikkei 225 started the week in Tokyo with a loss of 0.5%. Hong Kong recovers, Hang Seng up 1.6% on weak China news. The PBOC left its rates unchanged as expected. South Korea offers an increase of more than 1%, while Australia, more cautious, gains just 0.1%. European leading indicators are hovering around balance. The CAC40 opens the session with an increase of 0.3% to 7,260 points. The SMI lost 0.15% to 10,723 points. Bel20 strengthened by 0.15% to 3,540 points.
Today’s economic highlights
There will be no advance indicator today. The whole agenda here.
The euro rises to $1.0926. An ounce of gold is trading at $1,982. Oil is recovering, with North Sea Brent at $81.20 a barrel and US light WTI at $76.64. The yield on 10-year US debt is 4.45%. Bitcoin is trading around $37,100.
Major changes in recommendations
- Acerinox: Morgan Stanley maintains its overweight recommendation and increases the price target from €13.60 to €14.10.
- Amadeus IT Group: Morningstar maintains its hold recommendation with a price target raised from €62 to €64.
- AP Moller Maersk: AlphaValue/Baader Europe moves from Buy to Accumulate with a reduced price target from DKK 13,651 to DKK 12,105.
- Aperam: Morgan Stanley maintains its market weight recommendation with a reduced price target from EUR 31 to EUR 30.
- Avolta: HSBC maintains its buy recommendation with a reduced price target of CHF 60 to 57.
- Banco Santander: RBC Capital maintains its sector perform recommendation with a price target raised from €4.30 to €4.60.
- Bastide Le Confort Médical: AlphaValue/Baader Europe switches from Buy to Accumulate with a price target raised from €27.30 to €28.30.
- Burberry Group: Maintain Citigroup with price target reduced from GBX 2000 to GBX 1690.
- Cancom: Stifel maintains its hold recommendation with a price target cut from €35 to €31.
- Dassault Systèmes: Morningstar changes from hold to sell with a price target of €37.
- Delivery Hero: Jefferies remains a buy with a target price cut from €87 to €68.
- Flutter Entertainment: JP Morgan maintains its neutral rating with a reduced price target from GBX 17,100 to GBX 15,700.
- Glencore: Morgan Stanley cuts its recommendation from overweight to market weight with a price target of GBX 510.
- Hellofresh: Goldman Sachs maintains its neutral recommendation with a price target cut from €27.30 to €23.40.
- Henkel: HSBC maintains its buy recommendation with a price target raised from EUR 84 to EUR 87.
- Iberdrola: HSBC maintains Buy recommendation and cuts price target from €12.70 to €12.40.
- Imperial Brands: JP Morgan maintains its overweight recommendation with a reduced price target of GBX 2,350 to GBX 2,250.
- International Consolidated Airlines Group: RBC Capital maintains its Market Perform recommendation and raises its price target to GBX 200 from GBX 195.
- Ipsen: Jefferies goes from buy to hold with price target cut from €130 to €116.
- Just Eat Takeaway.com: Jefferies remains a buy with a target price cut from €38 to €25.50.
- Munters Group: Carnegie Group switches from buy to hold with a target price of SEK 155.
- Ocado Group: Jefferies maintained with price target cut from GBX 750 to GBX 575.
- Outokumpu: Morgan Stanley maintains its overweight recommendation and lowers the price target from €5.20 to €4.80.
- Qinetiq Group: JP Morgan maintains its neutral recommendation with a price target cut from GBX 420 to GBX 390.
- Reckitt Benckiser: Citigroup maintains Buy recommendation and lowers price target from GBX 6,900 to GBX 6,200.
- Royal Unibrew: Citigroup remains neutral with a target price cut from DKK 550 to DKK 500.
- Saint-Gobain: Morgan Stanley maintains its overweight position and raises its target price from €75 to €76.
- Soitec: Morningstar changes from buy to hold with a reduced price target from €190 to €180.
- Standard Chartered: Goldman Sachs changes from neutral to buy with a target price cut from GBX 879 to GBX 868.
- Universal Music Group: HSBC maintains its cut recommendation with a target price cut from €18.20 to €17.70.
- Ypsomed Holding: Bank Vontobel AG maintains its buy recommendation and raises its target price from CHF 280 to CHF 320.
Important (and not so important) announcements
- Schneider issues €750m OCEANE bonds.
- Antin Infrastructure Partners’ Flagship Fund V affiliate has acquired security technology company Consilium Safety Group.
- Solocal appointed Cédric Dugardin as general manager effective Wednesday.
- Artmarket integrates cryptocurrencies into its standardized marketplace.
- Laurent Prud’homme is the future CEO of Olympique Lyonnais Groupe.
- Genomic vision in forced administration.
- Alan Allman Associates establishes itself in Portugal and Spain with the acquisition of Winning consulting.
- Biophytis raises €1.96 million through ABSAR issue.
- Drone Volt presented its Kobra drone at the Milipol fair.
- They have published / Must publish : nothing…
In the big world
Important (and not so important) announcements
- Bayer is appealing a tough US jury order to pay more than $1.5 billion to three plaintiffs who say their cancers are linked to the glyphosate-based weed killer Roundup. Furthermore, the group is suspending the testing of the anticoagulant drug due to ineffectiveness.
- Blackstone is in the lead to acquire a $17 billion commercial real estate loan portfolio from the FDIC’s sale of Signature Bank’s debt.
- AMS-Osram hopes to raise 775 million Swiss francs through the capital increase.
- BP Plc is looking for partners for offshore wind projects in Japan and is exploring hydrogen investments.
- Adobe is reviewing the EU’s statement of objections regarding Operation Figma.
- Yara will store CO2 from its Dutch factory under the seabed.
- Tesla wins lawsuit accusing it of monopolizing repairs and spare parts.
- Shell confirms withdrawal of complaint against Nigeria’s oil fields.
- Saab receives an order for defense equipment worth SEK 4.3 billion.
- Basilea receives million dollar payment from Pfizer for antifungal drug.
- S&P could downgrade Samhällsbyggnadsbolaget to selective default due to a debt buyback offer.
- Main publications of the day: Compass, Agilent, Keysight, Zoom Video, Xiaomi, Julius Bär, Big Yellow… Full agenda here.