The good news is that carbon neutrality in the Nordic countries by 2050 and in China around 2060 is within reach. “We can reach ‘net zero’ by 2050-2060” explains Patrick Pouyanné, CEO of TotalEnergies during the TotalEnergies Energy Outlook 2023 presentation, on the eve of COP 28 in Dubai. The energy conversion has finally begun. “The decoupling between growth and oil demand started after 2005. We can generate growth with less energy, thanks to better energy use”notes Helle Kristoffersen, the oil company’s general manager for strategy and sustainable development.
The bad news is that this energy transition will not be enough to keep global warming below 2°C by 2100. Even if we reduce the share of fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas) to 55% of the global energy mix thanks to the massive development of renewable energy sources by limiting the growth of energy demand to 0.3% per year (mainly thanks to the increase in energy efficiency of 2.4% per year in 2021 to 2050) and by electrifying uses, especially transport, in northern countries (plus Australia, New Zealand and Chile) have committed to carbon neutrality by 2050 (NZ50) and in China the temperature increase in 2100 will be around 2.2 °C, when current policies take us… to nearly 4°C.
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